Published: 2009-11-30 11:43:08
Author: Chris Frates | Politico | November 14, 2009
Democrats have promised that health reform would reduce health care costs, but legislation the House passed last week would increase costs over the next decade by $289 billion. By 2019, health costs would rise to 21.1 percent of GDP compared to 20.8 under current law, according toan actuarial report prepared by the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services.
“With the exception of the proposed reductions in Medicare payment
updates for institutional providers, the provisions of H.R. 3962 would
not have a significant impact on future health care cost growth rates.
In addition, the longer-term viability of the Medicare update
reductions is doubtful,” the report said.
In other words, outside of Medicare payment cuts to hospitals, the bill
doesn’t curb increasing health care costs. And even the Medicare
payment cuts will be difficult to sustain.
The analysis is more bad news for Democrats, who are facing increasing
criticism that their reforms don’t do enough to control costs.
Republicans released the analysis and jumped on the news.
“This report confirms what virtually every independent expert has been
saying: Speaker Pelosi’s health care bill will increase costs, not
decrease them,” said Rep. Dave Camp, the ranking Republican on the
House Ways and Means Committee. “This is a stark warning to every
Republican, Democrat and Independent worried about the financial future
of this nation. I hope my colleagues in the Senate heed CMS’ findings
and refuse to rush ahead until any bill under consideration can be
certified to actually reduce health care costs.”
I’m reading over the report and will update the post shortly.
Update: The 31-page report also analyzes the impact of a number of the House bill’s other policy proposals. After the jump, I’ve listed the most interesting ones, page by page.
Update2: House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's spokesman, Nadeam Elshami, offers this spin: "The report shows that our health reform bill will extend the life of the Medicare trust fund by five years – significantly longer than any proposal in recent years. Medicare actuaries estimate $100 billion more in savings than CBO from Medicaid and Medicare. In 2019, CMS estimates that our bill will cover 10 percent more of the population with less than a 1.3 percent increase in national health expenditures – that illustrates a bending of the cost curve."
Pg. 3 – “Most of the provisions of H.R. 3962 that were designed, in part, to reduce the rate of growth in health care costs would have a relatively small savings impact.” Translation: Things like wellness and prevention programs and reducing Medicare fraud don’t save much money.Pg. 4 – Acknowledges that with so many unprecedented provisions, the report’s estimates are more uncertain than usual.
Full story